2
Moontown
4yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 72
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength25%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 17/11/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 26/11/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 20/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 60% | +0.44 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 02/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |