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5

Ducky Medwick

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 77

Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 19/04/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f Fas 118 · HIGHER CLASS19/04C6C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 18/05/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 82 · 7f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2025 · OR 82 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 28/06/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 88 · 6f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 88 par28/06C5OR 88C5 @ Aqueduct 28/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 86 · 6f110y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 86 parC5 @ Aqueduct 18/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 75 · 7f 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 75 par18/04C5OR 75C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 15/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 72 · 6f Fas 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 72 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 77 · 1m 126 · below its mark27/06/2026 · OR 77 par27/06C8OR 77C8 @ Saratoga 16/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 78 · 6f 126 · below its mark16/08/2026 · OR 78 par16/08C8OR 78projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-16Saratoga?6th6th0
2026-06-27Belmont At The Big A?3rd3rd0
2026-05-15Belmont At The Big A?4th1st+3
2026-04-18Aqueduct?4th1st+3
2026-02-28Aqueduct?6th3rd+3
2025-06-28Belmont At The Big A?7th4th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/0428/0227/0616/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength36%

Delivery trend -8.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/04/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
18/05/20255th12/137%33%-0.04
28/06/20257th10/147%0%-0.47
28/02/20266th16/116%38%+0.22
18/04/20264th11/271%50%-0.21
15/05/20264th8/158%50%-0.08
27/06/20263rd5/287%50%-0.37
16/08/20266th9/276%29%-0.48