4
Fess
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 52
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength67%
Delivery trend +10.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 16/09/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |