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Montauk Memoirs

4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 58

Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength92%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: +1.9
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Finger Lakes 16/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 65 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/07/2025 · OR 65 par16/07C6OR 65C6 @ Finger Lakes 05/08/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 69 · 6f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/08/2025 · OR 69 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 01/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 63 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 63 par1/09C6OR 63C6 @ Finger Lakes 29/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 64 · 5f110y 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/09/2025 · OR 64 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 21/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 67 · 6f Fas 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 67 par21/10C5OR 67C5 @ Finger Lakes 17/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 6f Slo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/11/2025 · OR 72 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 11/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 71 · 5f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 71 par11/05C5OR 71C5 @ Finger Lakes 27/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 70 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/05/2026 · OR 70 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 16/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 55 · 6f 124 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 55 par16/09C8OR 55projClass-projected finish: 1st of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-05-27Finger Lakes?6th3rd+3
2026-05-11Finger Lakes?4th1st+3
2025-11-17Finger Lakes?5th2nd+3
2025-10-21Finger Lakes?3rd0th+3
2025-09-29Finger Lakes?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0729/0911/0516/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength84%

Delivery trend +3.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/07/20252nd15/890%75%-0.15
05/08/20256th15/890%0%-0.90
01/09/20252nd3/184%83%-0.01
29/09/20251st13/891%100%+0.09
21/10/20253rd12/137%71%+0.35
17/11/20255th13/266%20%-0.46
11/05/20264th8/158%40%-0.18
27/05/20266th14/126%0%-0.26
16/09/20262nd11/271%89%+0.18