2
Noguchi
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 72
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 15/01/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 13/02/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 83% | -0.06 |
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 11/4 | 86% | 25% | -0.61 |
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 02/04/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 40% | -0.49 |
| 16/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 29% | -0.56 |
| 16/09/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |