Chamita

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 56

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

42%

Place Prob

27%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark

Move▼1

Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-18	Churchill Downs	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-08-30	Kentucky Downs	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0
2026-08-13	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-07-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 11100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +17.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/07/2026	5th	9/1	53%	56%	+0.03
13/08/2026	3rd	3/1	84%	71%	-0.13
30/08/2026	8th	40/1	0%	36%	+0.36
18/09/2026	7th	20/1	0%	45%	+0.45