1
Chocolate Moose
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - To Much Coffee Handicap · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 7-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 21/08/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 04/09/2025 | 6th | 11/10 | 94% | 38% | -0.57 |
| 01/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 07/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 01/05/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 29/07/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |