14
Positive Change
5yo Gelding · 8-12
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - To Much Coffee Handicap · 1m 110y
#15
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1647% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 10/09/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 02/10/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 12/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 66/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |