4
Sleepy
4yo Gelding · 9-0
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - To Much Coffee Handicap · 1m 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish15th of 167% of fieldRange 10-16 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 15th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/05/2026 | 9th | 11/10 | 94% | 11% | -0.83 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 29/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 18/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 20% | -0.75 |