IvyArcIvyArc
2

Forever Release

2yo Filly · 8-5 · OR 73

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 11 - Circle City Stakes · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR - · 5f 11628/05C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 65 · 5f Slo 119 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 65 par25/06C6OR 65C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 15/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 70 · 5f Fas 119 · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 70 par15/07C6OR 70projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st3rd−2
2026-06-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd4th−2
2026-05-28Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd5th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/0525/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength89%

Delivery trend +9.5% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/05/20263rd5/174%60%-0.14
25/06/20262nd5/174%88%+0.14
15/07/20261st1/195%100%+0.05