5
J's Jersey Boy
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 60
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 11 - Circle City Stakes · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
36%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength7%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +29.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 14% | -0.33 |
| 19/08/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |