4
Sleepy Beauty
2yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 65
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 11 - Circle City Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
27%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-19 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 5-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength60%
Delivery trend -26.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 70% | +0.44 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |