Apollitical Hippie

4yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 53

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 12 - Maiden Claiming · 1f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 8.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	4th	+1	5.6
2026-08-18	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	7th	+1	2.6
2025-11-12	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	9th	5th	+4	5.2
2025-10-30	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	10th	9th	+1	1.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 1423% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength48%

Delivery trend +13.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
30/10/2025	10th	20/1	0%	0%	0.00
12/11/2025	9th	25/1	0%	11%	+0.11
18/08/2026	8th	16/1	16%	13%	-0.03
08/09/2026	5th	66/1	0%	50%	+0.50