Larryknocksoutmegan
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 67
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 12 - Maiden Claiming · 1f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA62 | 6th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.3% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 25/09/2025 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 04/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |