Imminent Risk
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2025-08-06 | Saratoga | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -11.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 20/09/2025 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 30% | -0.54 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 44% | -0.29 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 5/6 | 96% | 64% | -0.32 |