4
Mariposa Moon
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 67
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-09 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength65%
Delivery trend +0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 20/02/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 18/03/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |
| 09/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 18% | +0.02 |
| 25/04/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 9% | -0.57 |
| 23/06/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 11% | -0.49 |
| 15/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 13/08/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 44% | -0.41 |
| 09/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |