Rocky World

3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 59

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength55%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-04-26	Churchill Downs	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-03-28	Turfway Park	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-03-12	Turfway Park	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-02-12	Turfway Park	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish10th of 100% of fieldRange 9-10 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -14.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
12/02/2026	5th	20/1	0%	20%	+0.20
12/03/2026	6th	25/1	0%	17%	+0.17
28/03/2026	7th	33/1	0%	14%	+0.14
26/04/2026	8th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26