Serralunga
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 44
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 9.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Ellis Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-12-21 | Gulfstream | ? | 12th | 9th | +3 |
| 2025-11-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 7th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/11/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 21/12/2025 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |