6
Sovereign Grace
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 68
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -14.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 13/02/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 27/02/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 14/03/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 16/05/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 56% | -0.21 |
| 09/09/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |