9
Ghost Story
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 59
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Back Home Again Stakes · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
98%
Place Prob
81%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength11%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 13/08/2026 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |