6
Pioneer Sky
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 48
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Back Home Again Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-08-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-07-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-05-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength89%
Delivery trend +17.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 28/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 90% | +0.37 |
| 01/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |