5
He's A Charmer
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 95
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 12th | 10th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength61%
Delivery trend -3.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 17/01/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 03/04/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 82% | -0.10 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 82% | -0.01 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 71% | -0.23 |