2

Mo Can Dance

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 87

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength34%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turfway Park 18/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR - · 1m110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS18/01C6C6 @ Turfway Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 87 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 87 par1/03C6OR 87C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 82 · 1m Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/05/2026 · OR 82 par11/05C6OR 82C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 77 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark04/06/2026 · OR 77 par4/06C9OR 77C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 80 · 1m110y Gd 120 · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 80 par11/08C9OR 80C8 @ Colonial Downs 07/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark07/09/2026 · OR 84 par7/09C8OR 84projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-07Colonial Downs?2nd2nd0
2026-08-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st2nd−1
2026-06-04Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th5th−1
2026-05-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th6th+2
2026-03-01Turfway Park?9th7th+2
2026-01-18Turfway Park?6th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/011/0311/054/0611/087/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1180% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength60%

Delivery trend -1.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 11.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/01/20266th20/10%55%+0.55
01/03/20269th16/116%0%-0.16
11/05/20268th12/137%30%-0.07
04/06/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
11/08/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
07/09/20262nd9/276%86%+0.09