1
Papiamento
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1130% of fieldRange 8-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 20/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 13% | -0.66 |
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 56% | -0.02 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 28/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 20/08/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |