Rag Tree

4yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 67

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength18%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.4

Today:

Class gap: +0.1

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Fairmount Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-07-31	Ellis Park	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-06-09	Fairmount Park	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-31	Hawthorne	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-05-16	Fairmount Park	?	1st	-1th	+2	5.0
2026-04-16	Oaklawn Park	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish11th of 110% of fieldRange 7-11 · 68%

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.7% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
15/02/2026	4th	8/1	58%	63%	+0.05
05/03/2026	7th	25/1	0%	33%	+0.33
20/03/2026	4th	10/3	82%	50%	-0.32
16/04/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	78%	+0.78
16/05/2026	1st	5/1	74%	100%	+0.26
31/05/2026	4th	10/1	47%	40%	-0.07
09/06/2026	4th	10/1	47%	40%	-0.07
31/07/2026	6th	25/1	0%	29%	+0.29
29/08/2026	6th	15/2	61%	38%	-0.23