Senor Valentine
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 83
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 04/09/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 14/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |