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10

Thousands Of Hopes

3yo Gelding · 8-3 · OR 82

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼1
Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: +1.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 28/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 56 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 56 par28/10C6OR 56C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 43 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/11/2025 · OR 43 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 69 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 69 par21/04C6OR 69C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 68 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 68 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 74 · 6f Fas 120 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 74 par2/06C8OR 74C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 82 · 6f 117 · below its mark11/06/2026 · OR 82 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 82 · 1m70y 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark08/07/2026 · OR 82 par8/07C5OR 82C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 1m70y Fas 118 · below its mark26/08/2026 · OR 77 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 75 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 75 par17/09C5OR 75projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd0th+3
2026-08-26Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-07-08Horseshoe Indianapolis?8th5th+3
2026-06-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-06-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-05-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-1th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today28/1011/058/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1150% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -4.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
28/10/20252nd4/179%91%+0.12
06/11/20252nd10/382%88%+0.05
21/04/20263rd10/147%78%+0.30
11/05/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
02/06/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
11/06/20266th2/189%17%-0.73
08/07/20268th16/116%0%-0.16
26/08/20262nd5/174%90%+0.16
17/09/20263rd7/282%71%-0.10