4
American Wind
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 70
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2026-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength51%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 26/02/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 82% | +0.08 |
| 19/03/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 01/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 26/05/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 02/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 21/09/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |