Butch's Best
6yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-09-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-08-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-06-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -2th | +3 |
| 2025-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2024 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 16/04/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 21/05/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 25% | -0.65 |
| 04/06/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 08/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 17/10/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |