5
Decatur Street
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
40%
Place Prob
30%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 3-10 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength19%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 12/02/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 78% | -0.04 |
| 08/04/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 16/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 20/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |