Major Wager
9yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 85
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-07-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-04-11 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/01/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |
| 27/02/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 21/03/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 11/04/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 02/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 12/12/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 14/01/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 06/03/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |