2
Smokinghot Justice
3yo Filly · 8-8
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Itoba Stallion Season Fillies Handicap · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
28%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.2% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 27/08/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 45% | -0.41 |
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 25/10/2025 | 3rd | 50/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |