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4

Hard Luck Prayer

3yo Gelding · 8-10

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Itoba Stallion Season Handicap · 1m 70y

#1

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

59%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength31%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 2.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 06/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 34 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark06/10/2025 · OR 34 par6/10C6OR 34C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 13/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 43 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark13/11/2025 · OR 43 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 08/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 51 · 5f110y Fas 122 · beat its mark08/04/2026 · OR 51 par8/04C6OR 51C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 64 · 6f Fas 122 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 64 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 76 · 1m Fas 118 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 76 par18/05C5OR 76C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 86 · 1m70y 117 · beat its mark11/06/2026 · OR 86 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 6f 12211/07C?C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 22/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m Gd 122C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m70y 12211/09C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-08-22Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-07-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-06-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-05-18Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-05-02Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/102/0511/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength94%

Delivery trend -3.6% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/10/20253rd10/147%78%+0.30
13/11/20253rd25/10%82%+0.82
08/04/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
02/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
18/05/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
11/06/20262nd2/598%75%-0.23
11/07/20262nd10/147%80%+0.33
22/08/20262nd10/147%91%+0.44
11/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11