11
Jr Shadow Boy
3yo Gelding · 8-10
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Itoba Stallion Season Handicap · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 1.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength17%
Delivery trend -18.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/06/2026 | 1st | 1/8 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 1/25 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 09/09/2026 | 4th | 4/9 | 98% | 25% | -0.73 |