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5

Sly Guy

3yo Gelding · 8-8

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Itoba Stallion Season Handicap · 1m 70y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength38%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 23 · 1m 120 · beat its mark16/10/2025 · OR 23 par16/10C6OR 23C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/10/2025 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 27 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 27 parC9 @ Turfway Park 28/02/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 31 · 1m Fas 120 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 31 par28/02C9OR 31C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 38 · 6f 122 · beat its mark01/05/2026 · OR 38 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 50 · 1m Slo 120 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 50 par25/05C6OR 50C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m110y Fm 120 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 60 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 30/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 62 · 1m 118 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 62 par30/06C5OR 62C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 68 · 1m 117 · beat its mark29/07/2026 · OR 68 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR - · 1m70y 12011/09C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2026-07-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-06-30Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-06-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?9th9th0
2026-05-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-05-01Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/101/0530/0611/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength58%

Delivery trend -1.0% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/10/20256th25/10%29%+0.29
25/10/20259th40/10%20%+0.20
28/02/20268th40/10%13%+0.13
01/05/20263rd40/10%71%+0.71
25/05/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
16/06/20269th3/184%0%-0.84
30/06/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
29/07/20266th13/266%29%-0.37
11/09/20262nd25/10%90%+0.90