Arctic Tsar

2yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 71

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery · 7f

#4

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength43%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class: 3

Recent avg: C4.3

Today: 5

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-08	Leicester	6	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-08-12	Salisbury	4	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-07-13	Windsor	4	6th	5th	+1	5.2
2026-06-14	Salisbury	3	8th	6th	+2	4.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +22.2% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/06/2026	8th	15/2	61%	30%	-0.31
13/07/2026	6th	9/1	53%	38%	-0.15
12/08/2026	6th	20/1	0%	29%	+0.29
08/09/2026	1st	11/2	71%	100%	+0.29