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Louis The Fifth

2yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 75

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery · 7f

#3

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

15%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Fair form in maiden/novice events over 6f/7f on turf. Switches to all-weather for his nursery debut with cheekpieces also added.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Carlisle 24/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 5f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS24/0644 @ Ffos Las 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS14/0744 @ Newmarket 31/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 77 · 6f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 77 par31/074OR 773 @ Epsom Downs 10/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 77 · 7f3y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 77 par10/093OR 77projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Epsom Downs35th3rd+2
2026-07-31Newmarket44th3rd+1
2026-07-14Ffos Las42nd1st+1
2026-06-24Carlisle43rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/0614/0731/0710/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%

Delivery trend +9.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/06/20263rd7/491%33%-0.57
14/07/20262nd9/276%75%-0.01
31/07/20264th5/174%50%-0.24
10/09/20265th5/174%56%-0.18