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Rollthedicebaby

2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 74

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery · 7f

#10

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#10

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 6f Goodwood maiden (heavy) in June but hasn't managed to build on that since. Needs a switch to all-weather to have a positive effect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼3
Strength100%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 01/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR - · 5f Gd 128 · HIGHER CLASS1/0524 @ Goodwood 12/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR - · 6f Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS12/0642 @ Newbury 18/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 24 · OR 81 · 5f34y GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 81 par18/072OR 812 @ Newmarket 01/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 80 · 6f GF 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 80 par1/082OR 802 @ York 20/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 20 · OR 78 · 6f GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/08/2026 · OR 78 par20/082OR 782 @ Doncaster 10/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 76 · 6f111y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/09/2026 · OR 76 par10/092OR 76projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-10Doncaster26th2nd+3
2026-08-20York210th6th+3
2026-08-01Newmarket26th2nd+3
2026-07-18Newbury211th7th+3
2026-06-12Goodwood41st0th+1
2026-05-01Goodwood22nd-2th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/0512/0618/071/0820/0810/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 8-13 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/05/20262nd12/137%80%+0.43
12/06/20261st4/696%100%+0.04
18/07/202611th4/179%57%-0.22
01/08/20266th11/271%38%-0.34
20/08/202610th28/10%53%+0.53
10/09/20266th15/261%50%-0.11