Xochipilli

2yo Colt · 9-6 · OR 72

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Smartview Racecards Nursery · 7f

#1

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▼1

Strength58%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 4

Recent avg: C4.0

Today: 5

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-04	Kempton	4	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-08-22	Lingfield	4	4th	3rd	+1	7.2

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1383% of fieldRange 13-13 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -63.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 13. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/08/2026	4th	20/1	0%	73%	+0.73
04/09/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	83%	+0.10