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2

Forca Timao

6yo Gelding · 9-11 · OR 59

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Been a while since he scored. Best effort this season when close third of 8 in handicap at Lingfield (1¼m, all-weather) last month but stopped quickly back on turf at Leicester since.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Chelmsford City 30/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 70 · 1m5f66y Std 142 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 70 par30/105OR 705 @ Southwell 26/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m3f23y Std 138 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Chelmsford City 02/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 66 · 1m6f Std 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/01/2026 · OR 66 par2/015OR 666 @ Lingfield 24/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m4f Std 136 · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Lingfield 27/02/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 61 · 1m2f Std 134 · beat its mark27/02/2026 · OR 61 par27/026OR 615 @ Lingfield 20/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 61 · 1m2f1y Std 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/04/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Kempton 27/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 61 · 1m Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 61 par27/055OR 616 @ Lingfield 17/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 60 · 1m2f Std 138 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 60 · 1m2f GS 135 · below its mark08/09/2026 · OR 60 par8/096OR 60projClass-projected finish: 9th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Leicester68th8th0
2026-08-17Lingfield63rd3rd0
2026-05-27Kempton55th4th+1
2026-04-20Lingfield54th3rd+1
2026-02-27Lingfield64th4th0
2026-01-24Lingfield66th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/1024/0127/058/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength20%

Delivery trend -0.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/10/20255th14/126%0%-0.26
26/11/20257th25/10%40%+0.40
02/01/20265th40/10%33%+0.33
24/01/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
27/02/20264th17/255%70%+0.15
20/04/20264th22/10%63%+0.63
27/05/20265th25/10%69%+0.69
17/08/20263rd7/163%71%+0.08
08/09/20268th10/147%13%-0.35