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13

Hove Ranger

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 56

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course scorer in February. Resumed winning ways returned to all-weather when quickening up well to lead in the dying strides at Lingfield (1¼m) 44 days ago. Considered up 2 lb.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength70%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newbury 24/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 1m1y Sft 130 · HIGHER CLASS24/1045 @ Kempton 03/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 1m Sta 131 · HIGHER CLASS5 @ Lingfield 31/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS31/1256 @ Lingfield 14/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 54 · 1m1y Std 134 · beat its mark14/01/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Kempton 25/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 54 · 7f Sta 134 · beat its mark25/02/2026 · OR 54 par25/026OR 545 @ Goodwood 12/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 56 · 1m1f197y Sft 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/06/2026 · OR 56 par6 @ Brighton 30/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 55 · 7f216y GF 130 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 55 par30/066OR 556 @ Lingfield 17/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 54 · 1m2f Std 125 · beat its mark17/08/2026 · OR 54 par17/086OR 54projClass-projected finish: 1st of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Lingfield61st1st0
2026-06-30Brighton63rd3rd0
2026-06-12Goodwood55th4th+1
2026-02-25Kempton61st1st0
2026-01-14Lingfield62nd2nd0
2025-12-31Lingfield56th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today24/1014/0130/0617/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
24/10/202510th80/10%0%0.00
03/12/20259th200/10%11%+0.11
31/12/20256th150/10%44%+0.44
14/01/20262nd10/147%86%+0.38
25/02/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
12/06/20265th13/266%33%-0.32
30/06/20263rd13/891%50%-0.41
17/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16