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Karakula Dancer

3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 60

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m

#1

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

72%

Place Prob

51%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 3 times on all-weather for James Ferguson earlier this year, including over C&D. Third under Alice Bond on both starts for new stable, faring best of those held up in a 14-runner contest over C&D latterly.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength52%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 58 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 58 par4/036OR 586 @ Wolverhampton 16/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 59 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark16/03/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 04/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 59 · 1m142y Std 134 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 59 par4/046OR 596 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 7f219y GF 132 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Kempton 20/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 64 · 1m Sta 134 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 64 par20/056OR 646 @ Ripon 03/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 1m Gd 134 · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 64 par5 @ Wolverhampton 06/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 63 · 1m142y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/07/2026 · OR 63 par6/075OR 635 @ Newmarket 22/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 62 · 1m Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Kempton 09/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 61 · 1m Sta 131 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 61 par9/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Kempton63rd3rd0
2026-08-22Newmarket53rd2nd+1
2026-07-06Wolverhampton58th7th+1
2026-06-03Ripon63rd3rd0
2026-05-20Kempton65th5th0
2026-04-30Redcar62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0330/046/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +4.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/03/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
16/03/20263rd2/189%78%-0.12
04/04/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
30/04/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
20/05/20265th9/276%67%-0.10
03/06/20263rd17/255%71%+0.16
06/07/20268th9/276%36%-0.40
22/08/20263rd14/126%67%+0.40
09/09/20263rd11/142%85%+0.43