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7

Lovely Jubly

5yo Mare · 9-7 · OR 55

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

9%

Place Prob

18%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Second career success when making all on C&D reappearance in July. Creditable third of 10 back here since. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength40%

What the class read says

Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 26/02/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 53 · 1m Sta 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/02/2025 · OR 53 par26/025OR 536 @ Kempton 05/05/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 51 · 7f Sta 126 · beat its mark05/05/2025 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 02/08/2025 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 48 · 1m2f Goo 135 · beat its mark02/08/2025 · OR 48 par2/086OR 486 @ Lingfield 30/08/2025 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 45 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark30/08/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Bath 20/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 45 · 1m Hvy 121 · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 45 par20/106OR 456 @ Bath 30/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m Hvy 121 · beat its mark30/10/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Kempton 10/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 51 · 7f Sta 130 · beat its mark10/12/2025 · OR 51 par10/126OR 516 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 50 · 1m Sta 120 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 50 par6 @ Kempton 14/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 55 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark14/09/2026 · OR 55 par14/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Kempton63rd3rd0
2026-07-08Kempton61st1st0
2025-12-10Kempton68th8th0
2025-10-30Bath66th6th0
2025-10-20Bath61st1st0
2025-08-30Lingfield610th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0230/0810/1214/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/02/20258th66/10%0%0.00
05/05/20258th50/10%36%+0.36
02/08/202511th40/10%0%0.00
30/08/202510th40/10%31%+0.31
20/10/20251st66/10%100%+1.00
30/10/20256th8/158%50%-0.08
10/12/20258th16/116%36%+0.21
08/07/20261st40/10%100%+1.00
14/09/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01