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6

Mr Fustic

8yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 56

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

18%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Free-going sort who had race run to suit when back on the scoreboard at Southwell (1m) in March. Best effort since when fourth of 12 at Wolverhampton (8.6f) 15 days ago, keeping on from further back than ideal. This C&D winner is respected under Murphy.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Kempton 05/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 60 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 60 par5/116OR 606 @ Southwell 20/11/2025 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR 58 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 58 par6 @ Lingfield 02/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m1y Std 132 · beat its mark02/12/2025 · OR 56 par2/126OR 566 @ Chelmsford City 21/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 54 · 1m Std 134 · beat its mark21/02/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Southwell 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 53 · 1m13y Std 133 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 53 par21/036OR 536 @ Lingfield 30/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 57 · 1m1y Std 127 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 55 · 7f135y Goo 135 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 55 par19/056OR 556 @ Southwell 31/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 14 · OR 57 · 1m13y Std 127 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Wolverhampton 15/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 56 · 1m142y Std 136 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 56 par15/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Wolverhampton64th4th0
2026-08-31Southwell610th10th0
2026-05-19Lingfield65th5th0
2026-04-30Lingfield64th4th0
2026-03-21Southwell61st1st0
2026-02-21Chelmsford City63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/1121/0219/0515/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength88%

Delivery trend +1.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/11/20257th18/15%54%+0.49
20/11/20259th9/153%33%-0.19
02/12/20256th10/147%55%+0.07
21/02/20263rd11/271%71%+0.00
21/03/20261st6/168%100%+0.32
30/04/20264th5/174%73%-0.01
19/05/20265th8/158%60%+0.02
31/08/202610th20/10%31%+0.31
15/09/20264th12/137%73%+0.36