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12

Red Moon

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 57

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m

#8

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won over 7f on handicap debut at Salisbury in June but not kicked on since, faring little better for a first-time visor and step up to 1m last time.,

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength75%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.9)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Kempton 17/12/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 7f Sta 133 · HIGHER CLASS17/1224 @ Newbury 15/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 15 · OR - · 7f Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Salisbury 23/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 6f Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS23/0545 @ Salisbury 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 60 · 6f213y Gd 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Ffos Las 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 60 · 7f80y Sft 131 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 60 par17/066OR 606 @ Ffos Las 30/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 61 · 7f80y Goo 130 · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Epsom Downs 30/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 60 · 7f3y GF 130 · below its mark30/07/2026 · OR 60 par30/076OR 605 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 59 · 1m GS 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/09/2026 · OR 59 par13/095OR 59projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath55th4th+1
2026-07-30Epsom Downs66th6th0
2026-06-30Ffos Las65th5th0
2026-06-17Ffos Las63rd3rd0
2026-06-14Salisbury51st0th+1
2026-05-23Salisbury410th8th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1214/0630/0713/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/12/20256th28/10%29%+0.29
15/05/202611th50/10%29%+0.29
23/05/202610th66/10%18%+0.18
14/06/20261st5/174%100%+0.26
17/06/20263rd11/893%67%-0.26
30/06/20265th6/168%43%-0.26
30/07/20266th7/163%17%-0.46
13/09/20265th28/10%56%+0.56