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14

Atlas Mountain

3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 80

Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Recorded back-to-back thirds at Nottingham and Windsor over 1m in May and June though failed to stay when eighth of 10 in a novice over 11f here in August. Now drops back to 1m for handicap debut.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Goodwood 02/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR - · 7f Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/0824 @ Newbury 18/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 25 · OR - · 1m Goo 13318/0444 @ Nottingham 19/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 1m75y Goo 13019/0544 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 80 · 1m31y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 80 par8/064OR 803 @ Kempton 05/08/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 80 · 1m2f219y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/08/2026 · OR 80 par5/083OR 80projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-05Kempton38th7th+1
2026-06-08Windsor43rd3rd0
2026-05-19Nottingham43rd3rd0
2026-04-18Newbury410th10th0
2025-08-02Goodwood27th5th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/0818/0419/058/065/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 148% of fieldRange 12-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -22.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/08/20257th50/10%45%+0.45
18/04/202610th33/10%63%+0.63
19/05/20263rd20/10%80%+0.80
08/06/20263rd10/382%80%-0.02
05/08/20268th8/158%22%-0.36