3
Elan D'or
3yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 85
Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
72%
Rank
#1
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Kempton | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Sandown | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Newmarket | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newmarket | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength75%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 26/11/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 03/12/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 01/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 19/06/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 06/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 04/09/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |