13
Kitaro Kich
6yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 76
Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-12 | Kempton | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-02 | Kempton | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Kempton | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-10 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 12-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 10/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 89% | +0.26 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/10/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 02/07/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 16/07/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 12/08/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 30% | -0.23 |