Menzies

3yo Colt · 9-5 · OR 81

Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 1m

#3

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#3

★★ Timeform

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark

Move▼1

Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C3.0

Today: 4

Class gap: +1.0

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-04-28	Epsom Downs	1	6th	2nd	+3	7.8
2026-03-14	Southwell	3	3rd	2nd	+1	8.2
2026-02-11	Kempton	4	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-01-21	Kempton	4	5th	5th	0	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength15%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/01/2026	5th	12/1	37%	64%	+0.27
11/02/2026	1st	9/4	88%	100%	+0.12
14/03/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	78%	+0.25
28/04/2026	6th	25/1	0%	0%	0.00