IvyArcIvyArc
8

Sea Founder

4yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 78

Kempton · Industry Leading In-Play Markets At Unibet Handicap · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much better on all-weather than turf, winning over C&D in April before producing a career best when second of 11 over 7f here in August, finishing well. Flopped on turf last time but should relish this return to 1m and looks sure to bounce back. Not well drawn but still one to be positive about.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Wolverhampton 30/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 75 · 1m4f51y Std 128 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 75 par30/014OR 755 @ Lingfield 28/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 72 · 1m2f Std 132 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Kempton 18/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark18/03/2026 · OR 75 par18/035OR 754 @ Lingfield 03/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 75 · 1m4f Std 133 · beat its mark03/04/2026 · OR 75 par5 @ Kempton 30/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 75 · 1m Sta 135 · beat its mark30/04/2026 · OR 75 par30/045OR 753 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m2f70y Goo 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Newbury 09/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m GF 140 · beat its mark09/07/2026 · OR 78 par9/074OR 784 @ Kempton 12/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 77 · 7f Sta 127 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Sandown 11/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 79 · 7f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 79 par11/093OR 79projClass-projected finish: 8th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Sandown36th5th+1
2026-08-12Kempton42nd2nd0
2026-07-09Newbury46th6th0
2026-06-13Chester39th8th+1
2026-04-30Kempton51st2nd−1
2026-04-03Lingfield44th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/013/049/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 9-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -4.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/01/20267th18/15%33%+0.28
28/02/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
18/03/20264th5/174%75%+0.01
03/04/20264th11/271%79%+0.08
30/04/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
13/06/20269th7/163%11%-0.52
09/07/20266th33/10%55%+0.55
12/08/20262nd5/287%90%+0.03
11/09/20266th11/142%0%-0.42